If you want to make a positive splash in the betting world, then it pays to know about EV betting, also known as positive EV betting or +EV. Here in this guide, we will help you understand what that is.
Positive EV betting is when a sportsbook offers odds that are not a realistic reflection of the chances of an event occurring. More specifically, it’s when a sportsbook offers odds that are longer than they should be.
EV in sports betting is to some extent in the eye of the beholder. Sportsbooks set their odds based on their interpretation of the likelihood of something happening. If your interpretation differs, and you have justification for that interpretation, then you have an opportunity for positive EV sports betting.
Experience and judgement are essential in finding plus-EV betting at the top online sportsbooks. This is why we state that it’s not for beginners.
Bookmakers ensure a profit by including a margin which is commonly referred to as “vig” – short for vigorish, a Yiddish term that refers to interest. This means the odds are inherently unbalanced, and that imbalance is usually in favor of the sportsbook.
Sometimes, because odds-setters are human and can make mistakes just like the rest of us, that imbalance will tilt in favor of the bettor. It’s usually a very narrow margin, so most bettors won’t spot it – but if you identify the error, you can use it.
It helps to understand what positive EV betting is if you have an example.
If a sportsbook sets the odds for Team A to beat Team B at +100, that means they are giving Team A a 50/50 chance of winning. If you think their probability of winning is greater than 50% then this represents an EV betting opportunity.
Positive EV betting is not infallible. You might be wrong when you calculate that the chances of an outcome are in your favor. Or you might be right, but it still isn’t your day. Surprises happen. Ultimately, the goal is to put yourself in situations with a positive expected outcome in the long term. That doesn’t make them immune from short term variance. Understanding this mentality is key if you’re trying to make it as a +EV bettor.
There are certain misconceptions that arise from people hearing about this type of wagering and thinking they understand it, and can use their betting bonuses to take advantage of it.
The first misconception is that EV betting is generally about betting on long shots and underdogs. It isn’t. It is, once again, about identifying where the value is in a bet. This could mean that a team starting as favorites is still priced longer than it should be. If you think there is a 9 in 10 chance of something happening and the moneyline odds put it at -400, that means the sportsbook has calculated it as an 8 in 10 chance, longer than it should be, and are offering positive EV on the bet. A lot of +EV betting is about backing overpriced favorites.
That leads us to another of the misconceptions, which is that EV will help you avoid placing losing bets. The truth is that unpredictability are everywhere in sports, unlikely winners come through far more often than the odds suggest, and sometimes you’ll lose a few bets in a row. This is referred to as a “downswing”, and it tends to correct itself over time.
| EV | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| Probability | Percentage chance of an event happening |
| Volatility | The possibility of unexpected outcomes |
| Downswing | A cluster of negative results |
| Vigorish | The margin a sportsbook builds for itself |
Here is a little more about how this type of wagering works, with cold hard numbers to back it up.
Bear in mind, though, that this is an entirely illustrative example and you may struggle to find such a juicy bet in the “wild”. However, now you know how to calculate the EV of a bet, and this will help you make smarter bets going forward.
Remember, we’re dealing with sports betting, so no matter how scientific we get about it, this doesn’t mean that you’re protected from all potential negative outcomes at in-play betting sites. Most importantly, you’ll need to do the following.
Don’t just guess at the probability of something. Look over a range of statistical analysis, including past meetings between teams and players, short-range weather forecasts, up-to-date team news covering issues like injuries, poor form and squad cohesion. You decide the probability of an event in your eyes, but if you shape it to fit the bet then you’re lying to yourself. It’s probably a good idea to have dry runs where you calculate the EV of a bet and then see how it goes without placing the bet. You’re marking your own homework here, so it does you no favors to just guess.
As we’ve already explained, this type of wagering is subject to fluctuations, downswings and volatility. Sometimes you’ll lose. Sometimes, you’ll lose a few times in a row. The most likely time for this to happen is right at the start of your EV career, because you’re inexperienced and more likely to make mistakes. So bet cautiously and ensure you don’t waste your entire bankroll on the first few wagers. Work carefully and try, as far as possible, to bet with won money.
If you’re trying to become a +EV bettor, having a good understanding of how sports betting works is crucial. That goes beyond the core foundations of the sport though, and extends to how the industry works as well. One of the key factors here is selecting the best sites based on where you’re located. You don’t want to take -110 on an outcome if -105 is available elsewhere at a legal sportsbook in your region. That may seem like a minor difference in the odds but over time these factors can compound to become an edge in themselves.
Nothing can ever be guaranteed in betting. The chance for something to go wrong, or very unexpectedly right, are precisely why betting exists as a concept. EV betting is a way of harnessing those unexpected moments that the sportsbook hasn’t seen, and turning them into success. Just bear in mind that an increased chance of success is still not a guarantee, and you should always bet carefully.
No, but what it does do is allow you to pick bets that offer greater value, and exploit those rare occasions where the sportsbooks have got it wrong.
Assuming that you aren’t consulting experts or using software to find the best bets out there, the use of this formula: (EV = (Probability of Winning * Potential Profit) – (Probability of Losing * Amount Wagered)) is the way to discover exactly how much EV there is in a bet. If it’s a positive number, it’s potentially a decent bet. The higher the positive number, the better the bet can be.
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